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Jack Shanahan

Retired Air Force lieutenant general; first director of the Pentagon's Joint AI Center

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Some incremental effects might not differ substantively from the pre-AI era, but the consequences of compounding failures in worst-case scenarios are potentially catastrophic. This reality underscores the need for a deep understanding of how AI affects every system, platform, and process that intersects with NC2/NC3.

Jack Shanahan

Retired Air Force lieutenant general; first director of the Pentagon's Joint AI Center

In a September 2025 Arms Control Today article on AI and nuclear command and control, Jack Shanahan wrote that some incremental effects of AI might not differ substantively from the pre-AI era but that the consequences of compounding failures in worst-case scenarios are potentially catastrophic, and that this underscores the need for a deep understanding of how AI affects every system, platform, and process that intersects with nuclear command and control.

Retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant general and former inaugural Director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence CenterPublished September 2025 · date of remarks not establishedArms Control Today

SourceArchived
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Surrounding words

… unrelated applications, such as computer vision models deployed in Project Maven2 or large language models (LLMs) used for problem scoping and mission analysis, can amplify the effects of other inputs that shape nuclear-related decisions. Some incremental effects might not differ substantively from the pre-AI era, but the consequences of compounding failures in worst-case scenarios are potentially catastrophic. This reality underscores the need for a deep understanding of how AI affects every system, platform, and process that intersects with NC2/NC3. As no current modeling or simulation can capture the complexity of the entire NC2/NC3 enterprise during a real crisis, exercises, wargames, and tabletop simulations are crucial, yet insufficient.

What this quote does not say

  • The page gives only a month-level publication date (September 2025); no day is stated.
  • The quoted 'worst-case scenarios' are the compounding-failure scenarios of AI integration across the nuclear command and control enterprise, the subject of the article; the sentence does not estimate likelihood.

How this was checked

  • Quote matched character-for-character against the captured page.

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an AI reviewer that read the whole source · an automatic character-by-character check

If a U.S. or Chinese company declared tomorrow that it had achieved AGI, the pronouncement would be difficult to verify and would have no immediate relevance for either state’s armed forces. Instead what matters for military effectiveness is how widely and effectively AI is used, how effectively digital modernization is carried out, whether new warfighting concepts evolve around AI-enhanced capabilities, and how military organizations adapt to a digital age.

Exact quote, beginning

Jack Shanahan

Retired Air Force lieutenant general; first director of the Pentagon's Joint AI Center

In a March 2026 essay for the SAIS Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs, Jack Shanahan wrote that if a U.S. or Chinese company declared tomorrow that it had achieved AGI, the announcement would be difficult to verify and would have no immediate relevance for either state's armed forces, and that what matters for military effectiveness is how widely AI is used, how digital modernization is carried out, whether new warfighting concepts evolve around AI, and how military organizations adapt.

Founding Director, U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Center; ACF Senior FellowPublished March 27, 2026 · date of remarks not establishedInstitute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs

SourceArchived
Context and checks

Surrounding words

But for the public sector, the AGI discourse diverts attention from the foundational, long-horizon work required to buy down decades of accumulated technical debt and modernize the nation’s digital infrastructure. If a U.S. or Chinese company declared tomorrow that it had achieved AGI, the pronouncement would be difficult to verify and would have no immediate relevance for either state’s armed forces. Instead what matters for military effectiveness is how widely and effectively AI is used, how effectively digital modernization is carried out, whether new warfighting concepts evolve around AI-enhanced capabilities, and how military organizations adapt to a digital age. These are the factors that will shape the future balance of military power. Together, misleading narratives can reify worst-case assumptions and narrow the space for rational decision-making. These framings also add fuel to the fire of opacity and uncertainty.

What this quote does not say

  • This qualification concerns immediate military relevance and does not establish Shanahan's view of AGI's long-run civilian or existential significance.
  • The role line on the host page appears to omit the word 'Intelligence' from the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center name; it is reproduced as shown rather than silently repaired.

How this was checked

  • Quote matched character-for-character against the captured page.

Reviewed by

an AI reviewer that read the whole source · an automatic character-by-character check