Even with our best existing technical safeguards in place, if people initiate a full-throttle intelligence recursion, losing control is highly likely and the default.
Eric Schmidt
former CEO and chairman of Google; coauthor of Superintelligence Strategy
In the April 2025 paper 'Superintelligence Strategy: Expert Version,' Schmidt and coauthors Dan Hendrycks and Alexandr Wang wrote that even with the best existing technical safeguards in place, if people initiate a full-throttle intelligence recursion, losing control is highly likely and the default.
Chair, Special Competitive Studies Project; former CEO and Chairman of GooglePublished April 14, 2025 · date of remarks not establishedSuperintelligence Strategy: Expert Version
Context and checks
Surrounding words
Moreover, we cannot run repeated large-scale tests of later stages of the recursion without risking disaster, so it is less amenable to the empirical iterative tinkering we usually rely on. Even with our best existing technical safeguards in place, if people initiate a full-throttle intelligence recursion, losing control is highly likely and the default. Intelligence Recursion as a Path to Strategic Monopoly. Despite the danger, intelligence recursion remains a powerful lure for states seeking to overtake their rivals.
What this quote does not say
- The claim is conditional on people initiating a full-throttle intelligence recursion — fully autonomous AI research and development, which the paper distinguishes from today's AI-assisted R&D. It is not a probability estimate for current AI or for all paths to advanced AI.
- 'Highly likely' is given no numerical value. Elsewhere the same chapter discusses officials tolerating 'a double-digit risk of losing control', but that is a description of others' risk tolerance, not a probability the authors assign to this sentence.
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