Doctors, scientists and economists

Daron Acemoglu

Institute Professor of Economics at MIT; Nobel laureate in economics

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To be sure, generative AI’s capabilities far exceed anything that the industry has produced before. But that does not mean that the industry’s expected timelines are correct. AI developers have an interest in creating the impression of imminent revolutionary breakthroughs, in order to stoke demand and attract investors.

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Daron Acemoglu

Institute Professor of Economics at MIT; Nobel laureate in economics

In a November 2024 Project Syndicate commentary, Daron Acemoglu wrote that generative AI's capabilities far exceed anything the industry has produced before but that this does not mean the industry's expected timelines are correct, and that even a slower pace of progress is cause for concern given deepfakes, voter and consumer manipulation, mass surveillance, and large-scale automation.

Nobel laureate in economics and Institute Professor of Economics at MITPublished November 29, 2024 · date of remarks not establishedThe World Needs a Pro-Human AI Agenda

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Surrounding words

Featuring insights from Cristina Enache, Brooke Harrington, James Livingston, Michael Madowitz, Ann Pettifor, Matt Simonton, and Quinn Slobodian. Subscribe and save 30% To be sure, generative AI’s capabilities far exceed anything that the industry has produced before. But that does not mean that the industry’s expected timelines are correct. AI developers have an interest in creating the impression of imminent revolutionary breakthroughs, in order to stoke demand and attract investors. But even a slower pace of progress is cause for concern, given the damage that AI can already do: deepfakes, voter and consumer manipulation, and mass surveillance are just the tip of the iceberg. AI can also be leveraged for large-scale automation, even when such uses make little sense. We already have examples of digital technologies being introduced into workplaces without a clear idea of how they will increase productivity, let alone boost existing workers’ productivity.

What this quote does not say

This qualifies capability timelines and scale. It is not a retraction of his 2023 endorsement of a pause, and the same commentary argues the deeper problem is the industry's 'fixation on AGI' rather than AGI itself.

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Unfortunately, my research showed that emerging AI technologies are today predominantly targeting automation and surveillance. The emphasis on surveillance is, of course, much more intense in China. We are already seeing the social and democratic implications of the rising inequality. In the United States, areas that have been most hit by Chinese competition or the introduction of robots show much greater degrees of polarization.

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Daron Acemoglu

Institute Professor of Economics at MIT; Nobel laureate in economics

In November 2023 testimony to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Daron Acemoglu said his research showed that emerging AI technologies are today predominantly targeting automation and surveillance, and that inequality undermines support for democracy and makes democracies more unstable and less capable of dealing with challenges.

Institute Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNovember 8, 2023U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs hearing, The Philosophy of AI: Learning from History, Shaping Our Future

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Overall, new tasks were critical for employment and wage growth during these eras. Unfortunately, my research showed that emerging AI technologies are today predominantly targeting automation and surveillance. The emphasis on surveillance is, of course, much more intense in China. We are already seeing the social and democratic implications of the rising inequality. In the United States, areas that have been most hit by Chinese competition or the introduction of robots show much greater degrees of polarization. Inequality undermines support for democracy, and this lack of support make democracies more unstable and less capable of dealing with challenges. This path is not inevitable. To improve human performance. We need to think beyond creating AI systems that to that seek to achieve artificial general intelligence or human parity.

What this quote does not say

The official hearing transcript contains apparent transcription/OCR errors, including 'this lack of support make'; the wording is preserved rather than silently corrected.
The passage discusses current and societal-scale harms, not a probability of extinction or loss of control.

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First of all, I do not argue that we should stop AI or even stop large language models, but I do strongly believe that we should regulate how they are developed, how they are rolled out, and how they are used. For example, in the case of large language models, I am one of the signatories of the declaration that we should pause, until we understand where we're heading, the further training and the development of large language models for a period of six months or longer.

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Daron Acemoglu

Institute Professor of Economics at MIT; Nobel laureate in economics

In a 2023 Econ Focus interview, Daron Acemoglu said he does not argue that AI or large language models should be stopped but that how they are developed, rolled out and used should be regulated, and that he is one of the signatories of the declaration calling for a pause of six months or longer on the further training and development of large language models.

Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyPublished May 31, 2023 · date of remarks not establishedEcon Focus interview

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EF: What policy choices might be made to see to it that AI is adopted in a worker-friendly way? Acemoglu: Well, that's a very difficult question. I think there is no silver bullet. But let me give you several answers. First of all, I do not argue that we should stop AI or even stop large language models, but I do strongly believe that we should regulate how they are developed, how they are rolled out, and how they are used. For example, in the case of large language models, I am one of the signatories of the declaration that we should pause, until we understand where we're heading, the further training and the development of large language models for a period of six months or longer. Because I think right now this rollout is speeding ahead of our understanding in the regulatory framework and it's locking in a particular direction. Likewise, in the case of the technologies that, for example, Facebook uses to promote certain kinds of content and monetize it on the basis of digital ads, there's again a question of how the technologies are going to be used.

What this quote does not say

Earlier in the same interview Acemoglu rejects the risk framing usually associated with that letter: asked about arguments about AI and alignment and long-term threats, he says 'Those arguments really confuse the debate. I'm not worried about artificial general intelligence coming and taking over humanity.' His stated reasons for the pause are regulatory lag and lock-in, not loss of control.
The interview is a P3 edited Q&A; the pause passage is also reproduced as a pull quote on the same page, which matches the body text.

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Quote located in the captured page; spacing normalised for display.

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Statements they signed

FROM THE SIGNED STATEMENT

This is a recipe for more violence. Therefore, every life taken must be a decision borne by a human conscience, not an algorithm.

Signed statement: “Statement on Moral Guardrails in AI” (Faith, Family & Technology Institute)

Daron Acemoglu

Institute Professor of Economics at MIT; Nobel laureate in economics

Signed as part of a group statement. Not spoken.

Daron Acemoglu was listed as a signer of the Statement on Moral Guardrails in AI, which calls on the U.S. government to reverse actions against Anthropic over its limits on mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons.

Professor of Economics, MITDate not establishedStatement on Moral Guardrails in AI

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Yasir Qadhi, Chairman, Fiqh Council of North America Brian Green, Director of Technology Ethics, Markkula Center for Applied Ethics, Santa Clara University Jaron Lanier, Author & Computer Scientist Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics, MIT Walter Scheirer, Professor of Engineering, University of Notre Dame Brad Littlejohn, President Emeritus, The Davenant Institute Chris Scammell, CEO, Mindstream Project M.

What this quote does not say

The roster's wording for Acemoglu's role is “Professor of Economics, MIT.”

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The organiser's own roster lists this person as a signer.

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FROM THE SIGNED STATEMENT

It could bring risks, including large-scale job displacement, as well as opportunities such as major gains in living standards.

Signed statement: “We Must Act Now” (Stanford Digital Economy Lab/economists)

Daron Acemoglu

Institute Professor of Economics at MIT; Nobel laureate in economics

Signed as part of a group statement. Not spoken.

Daron Acemoglu was listed as a signer of We Must Act Now, which calls for incentives, guardrails, and institutions to steer powerful AI toward complementing people and benefiting society.

Date not establishedWe Must Act Now

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humans and benefits society. ⬇ Signatories Erik Brynjolfsson, Stanford University Ajay Agrawal, University of Toronto Anton Korinek, University of Virginia and Anthropic Tom Cunningham, METR Michael Spence, New York University* Daron Acemoglu, MIT* Diane Coyle, University of Cambridge Chad Jones, Stanford University David Autor, MIT Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University* Niall Ferguson, Stanford University Jason Furman, Harvard University Simon Johnson, MIT* Christopher A.

How this was checked

The organiser's own roster lists this person as a signer.

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an AI reviewer that read the whole source